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signpost - Stocks: A Guidebook for the Months Ahead
Insight • January 27, 2025
4 min. Read

Stocks: A Guidebook for the Months Ahead

We think the bullish factors supporting the market will continue in the first half of 2025.

Going into 2025, we think the factors that have driven the equity bull market of the last two years remain favorable. Here is a quick review of each:

  1. Technology advances: The tech revolution continues to be a tailwind for equities, opening new markets and enhancing economic productivity. Breakthroughs in generative artificial intelligence (AI) over the past couple of years have strengthened this positive force.
  2. Market momentum: The momentum of the market remains positive based on technical signals. The S&P 500® Index, the Nasdaq Composite Index, and the Russell 2000® Index are in healthy uptrends. Market breadth—as measured by the percentage of companies in the Russell 3000® Index trading above their 150-day moving average—has improved meaningfully since reaching a low in October 2023.
  3. Moderating inflation: Inflation in developed markets has come down significantly and is now at a level that should be supportive for forward market returns. In the United States, the core U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure price index, or PCE (i.e., excluding food and energy) has moderated since hitting a peak of 5.6% in September 2022 and is near the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stated target of 2%.
  4. Easier monetary policy: Central bank policy moves are supportive. The Fed cut the target fed funds rate by 50 basis points (bps) in September 2024, 25 bps in November, and 25 bps in December. While market observers may differ over the number of Fed moves in the months to come, we think the most important takeaway from the changing monetary policy regime is this: the aggressive Fed tightening cycle that whipsawed markets in the past few years is in the rear-view mirror.
  5. Favorable earnings trends: The earnings backdrop remains favorable. Earnings for the S&P 500 for the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to grow around 12%, and similar growth is expected for 2025. This estimate seems reasonable to us. Additionally, as we have written previously, we believe that the growth potential of the S&P 493 and the Russell 2000 is likely to narrow the gap with the Magnificent Seven (see Figure 1). We think this bodes well for the returns of large cap stocks, mid cap stocks and small cap stocks, in comparison to mega cap stocks (i.e., the “Mag 7”). We continue to like the Mag 7, as they are driving generative AI and are therefore essential to the health of the overall market; however, we think their wealth will spread and allow bigger gains for the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500. 

Figure 1. Strong Earnings Growth Increases Potential Opportunities in Equities 

Actual and estimated year-over-year earnings growth rates of indicated segments of the S&P 500® Index as of December 5, 2024
Bar Chart showing Actual and estimated year-over-year earnings growth rates of indicated segments of the S&P 500® Index
Source: FactSet and Bloomberg. Data as of December 5, 2024. A=actual. E=estimated. Large cap stocks represented by the Russell 1000® Index; mid caps, by the Russell Midcap® Index; and small caps by the Russell 2000® Index. “Magnificent 7” refers to mega-cap companies NVIDIA, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft. Earnings growth as measured by growth in net income.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. The historical data shown in the chart above are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett.

Addressing Valuation and Other Questions

Now, after two strong years in a row of equity market gains, consider the risks to the bull market continuing. There are many bricks in the wall of worry that could upend markets. Geopolitics, an acceleration in inflation, or an economic growth slowdown are three clear potential risks. While inflation, an economic growth slowdown, and geopolitical risks are legitimate concerns that warrant close monitoring and may create short-term volatility, we believe the long-term drivers of the equity bull market remain intact, as mentioned above. These positive forces suggest that equities can still offer attractive returns despite the potential risks.

The fourth risk worth mentioning is high valuation levels. The bearish valuation argument normally starts with a metric like price-to-earnings ratios today compared to the past 50 years in the market: at 21 times next year’s earnings, the S&P 500 is above its long-term average of around 17 times.

However, this simple comparison fails to consider a few ways the S&P 500 today is worth more now than before. Consider these observations:

  1. Asset-light businesses now comprise 50% of the S&P 500 compared to 20% in 1994, based on data from FactSet. Manufacturing businesses are now less than 20% of the index, down from 45%. Asset-light companies have more predictable and faster revenue growth, higher earnings growth, and higher margins.1
  2. The S&P 500 is now consistently growing faster than U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by about 400 basis points. This was not always the case! From 1960-1995, the S&P 500 earnings grew about 200 bps slower than U.S. GDP growth.
  3. The cash flow generation and profitability of the S&P is at all-time highs: free cash flow and net income margins have steadily increased to surpass 10% in 2024.
  4. Capital returns to shareholders have improved dramatically. The return on equity of the S&P 500 has improved to 20% (up from 12% 50 years ago) and the combined dividends and share buybacks have increased from 25% of earnings 75% today.2

We think these points support the view that the market is worth more than it was in the past; the companies in the market today are much better. Therefore, investors should not be deterred from paying a premium to its historical average valuation.

Furthermore, valuation has historically been a poor predictor of future performance. Typically, market valuations tend to increase throughout the economic cycle until a recession occurs. At that point valuations contract. Therefore, we think investors should evaluate the factors that are driving the bull market (as laid out above) rather than a short-sighted study of valuation alone.

Steel bridge - The Investment Conversation: What Will Drive Equities in 2025?
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The Investment Conversation: What Will Drive Equities in 2025?

In this podcast, Lord Abbett Portfolio Manager Matt DeCicco examines the factors that could influence equity market performance in the year ahead—and the opportunities his team is focused on now.
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1Savita Subramanian, “There’s a New Value Investor in Town,” BofA Global Research, December 2024.
2Michael Goldstein, “Walking in a Winter Wonderland,” Empirical Research, December 23, 2024.

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Equity Investing Risks

The value of investments in equity securities will fluctuate in response to general economic conditions and to changes in the prospects of companies and/or sectors in the economy. While growth stocks are subject to the daily ups and downs of the stock market, their long-term potential as well as their volatility can be substantial. Value investing involves the risk that the market may not recognize that securities are undervalued, and they may not appreciate as anticipated. Smaller companies tend to be more volatile and less liquid than larger companies. Small cap companies may also have more limited product lines, markets, or financial resources and typically experience a higher risk of failure than large cap companies.

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The value of investments in fixed-income securities will change as interest rates fluctuate and in response to market movements. Generally, when interest rates rise, the prices of debt securities fall, and when interest rates fall, prices generally rise. High yield securities, sometimes called junk bonds, carry increased risks of price volatility, illiquidity, and the possibility of default in the timely payment of interest and principal. Bonds may also be subject to other types of risk, such as call, credit, liquidity, and general market risks. Longer-term debt securities are usually more sensitive to interest-rate changes; the longer the maturity of a security, the greater the effect a change in interest rates is likely to have on its price. 

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Glossary & Index Definitions

Asset-light companies derive a lower percentage of their sales from property, plant and equipment (PPE) than companies with a higher dependence on physical assets.

A basis point represents one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Bullish refers to an optimistic outlook and to a belief that certain investments may potentially increase in value in the future. Bull market refers to a time when stock prices are rising and market sentiment is optimistic. Generally, a bull market occurs when there is a rise of 20% or more in a broad market index over at least a two-month period. Bearish refers to a pessimistic outlook, and generally refers to a belief that certain investment prices may fall in the future. Bear market refers to a time when stock prices are declining and market sentiment is pessimistic. Generally, a bear market occurs when a broad market index falls by 20% or more over at least a two-month period.

Consensus estimate is an aggregate forecast of a public company's expected earnings based on the combined estimates of all analysts that cover the stock.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States. The federal funds (fed funds) rate is the target interest rate set by the Fed at which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight.

Market breadth refers to the ratio of stocks that are stocks are advancing versus declining within an index, sector, group, or market.

Market capitalization: The U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or FINRA, defines the following categories of stocks based on their market value: mega cap stocks, $200 billion or more; large cap stocks, between $10 billion and $200 billion; mid cap stocks, between $2 billion and $10 billion; small cap stocks, between $250 million and $2 billion; and micro cap stocks, less than $250 million.

The “Magnificent Seven” (Mag 7) are mega cap stocks that include Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.

Net income is a company’s income minus cost of goods sold, expenses, depreciation and amortization, interest, and taxes for an accounting period. It is also called the bottom line on a company’s income statement.

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE), also referred to as the PCE deflator, is a United States-wide indicator of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption. It is benchmarked to a base of 2009 = 100. Using a variety of data including U.S. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index prices, it is derived from personal consumption expenditures, the largest component of U.S. gross domestic product in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ National Income and Product Accounts report.

Price-to-Earnings Ratio: Stock analysts calculate a price-to-earnings ratio by dividing a stock's current price by its earnings per share on a trailing 12-month basis. A forward price-to-earnings ratio is calculated by dividing a stock's current price by estimated future earnings per share.

Growth stocks may be characterized as equities of companies that have demonstrated better-than-average gains in earnings in recent years and that are expected to continue delivering high levels of profit growth. Growth equities typically carry higher price-to-earnings multiples than the broader market, high earnings growth records, and greater volatility than broader market. Secular growth stocks are stocks of companies whose economic performance is relatively immune to economic cycles. 

Value stocks may be characterized as equities of companies that have fallen out of favor with investors but still have good fundamentals, or new companies that have yet to be recognized by investors. Value stocks typically feature lower price-to-earnings multiples than the broader market, and often industry peers, and somewhat lower volatility than the overall equity market.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000® Index measures the performance of the largest 3000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The Nasdaq Composite is a market cap-weighted index, simply representing the value of all Nasdaq-listed stocks. The set of eligible securities includes common stocks, ordinary shares, and common equivalents such as ADRs. 

The S&P 500® Index is widely regarded as the standard for measuring large cap U.S. stock market performance and includes a representative sample of leading companies in leading industries.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment.

Mentions of specific companies are for reference purposes only and are not meant to describe the investment merits of, or potential or actual portfolio changes related to, securities of those companies.

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